New developments this week in the 2012 race for the Republican nomination begin with the release of campaign finance disclosure reports. Obama has already taken a position at the top of the heap, disclosing an astounding $86.7 million, $21 million of which came from the President's substantial grassroots network (donations of $200 dollars or less). According to the LA Times, campaign manager Jim Messina declared this to be proof that their "grass roots supporters will be engaged...our people are back and energized." However, Obama also did considerably well with large donations and special interests. Of course, it's not all about the Benjamins. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has publicly disclosed 200,000 members that will reuse to donate or volunteer for the President if entitlements like Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security are cut. This is one of the first real manifestations of progressive liberal unhappiness with Obama on the campaign trail.
The front-runner in the GOP field is Mitt Romney, with $18.3 million in the bank. Romney has been the front-runner for some time now, though he's largely bypassed Iowa as a campaign stop (primarily because of their cold-shoulder in the 2008 caucus) and is counting on New Hampshire to carry him. In fact, Romney seems so confident in New Hampshire that he is running a bare bones campaign office in Manchester, with only 7 staffers compared to 14 at this point in 2008, according to The Huffington Post. Of course, this may have something to with the fact that at this point in the game his campaign piggy bank is over four times that of the next highest earning candidates.
With that, we have the GOP 'betas'; Texas Congressman Ron Paul with $4.5 million, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty with $4.3 million, Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann with $4.2 million, and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman with $4.1 million (he says, but won't need to report until October due to a late entrance). A bit like cattle in a bottleneck, all four of these candidates have run into a problem of differentiation which is keeping them from pulling ahead of the pack (with the possible exception of Ron Paul, who is too different). With the Minnesota shutdown to contend with, both Pawlenty and Bachmann are at one another's throats; Bachmann for Pawlenty's hand in a $5 billion budget shortfall in the state of Minnesota and Pawlenty for Bachmann's lack of executive experience and dubious congressional record. This had to happen eventually, being from the same state and the only one to go into partial shutdown twice in five years. Also, with the revelation of Bachmann's lead in Iowa polls, Pawlenty needs to stall her momentum.
In addition, Huntsman has seemingly abandoned some of his "civility" pledge in campaigning by taking pot-shots at Romney's record of job creation in Massachusetts as governor. The issue at hand for Huntsman is that he's practically the same guy as Romney; both former governors, both Mormon, both moderate (compared to the contemporary Republican reactionary) and both have some of the same individuals in their political networks. They even kind of look alike in that middle-aged, buttoned-down, slicked-back, white-guy kind of way (hey, you ask for quality reporting, you get it).
Perhaps most interesting in this pack of Betas is Ron Paul's recent move against the entire Republican establishment on the debt-ceiling negotiations and, really, previous decade of budget-making. His stance? No Deal. No kidding, what a surprise. His attacks come in the form of his first video ad, Conviction. The guy does maintain some serious political capital in the realm of congressional budgets and national debt, which he has used as a campaign platform since his run as a Libertarian in '88. Watch the video below:
The 'deltas', former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Godfather's CEO Herman Cain, reported $2.1 million and $2 million respectively. With the mass exodus of top staffers in early June and a dismal campaign finance disclosure Newt Gingrich's campaign seems to be running out of time. In early voting states like Iowa and new Hampshire his offices are run largely by volunteers, according to a Huffington Post report, though he admonishes doubters by saying that his kind of "internet-drive campaign...can function with a lean staff." However, a Republican political analyst from his home state of Georgia says he's not a "serious candidate" and even refers to him as "delusional".
Herman Cain has made some further controversial remarks (remember the alligator-filled border-moats?) that have proved once again that the man has no filter. Cain said on Fox News Sunday that American communities have the right to ban mosques in their communities, rationalizing it by applying "the separation of church and state." He accuses mosques of attempting to incorporate Sharia law, or the laws of the Koran, into American law. "Islam is both a religion and a set of laws -- Sharia laws. That's the difference between any one of our traditional religions where it's just about religious purposes." Herman Cain has managed to prove, in a single interview, that he doesn't understand either constitutional law OR religion. Ever heard of the Twelve Commandments? How about The Pillars of Buddhism? These religious tenants are considered part and parcel of religious practice, and American courts, not swayed by or incorporating any piece of them, take them into consideration when making a ruling. Bigot.
Former Senator from Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum raised about $528,000. Why's he running?
The loose cards in the deck, Texas Governor Rick Perry and perennial campaigner and surreality-celebrity Sarah Palin, continue to flirt with a 2012 run. Though Palin is largely a side-show attraction at this point, particularly with Michelle Bachmann (the other Tea Party pin-up girl) building steam in Iowa, Rick Perry is the guy to watch. A recent Time U.S. report shows he has popular support from many right-wingers given his fiscal hatchet-job in Texas, and has already been pseudo-campaigning in Iowa and South Carolina. If he does run, and look for an entry in August before the Iowa Straw Poll, he'll be a target rich environment for GOP opponents. He was a Democrat until the late 80's, and flip-flopped to get the vote for a Texas state position. He even was an early supporter of Al Gore, donating and working for his campaign. From the Democratic side he is perhaps one of the most unpopular governors in Texas history, and has done more to eviscerate public services, while greasing the works for tax breaks on things like luxury yachts. Not the kind of thing that gets a lot of people excited in the current economic climate.
Stay tuned for more instability at 2012 Voters!
It's true that presidential candidates hold undue sway in lobbying legislative debates in Washington. Michelle Bachmann, a Tea Party darling and denier of the possible U.S. default on Tuesday (she believes that Obama is "deceiving the American people") has been lobbying her fellow Republicans in the House to press for deeper cuts even if it means not passing a budget by the August 2nd deadline. Unfortunately, she's made this a part of her campaign stumping sermon across Iowa and given the baseless notion more public support than it actually deserves. C'est la vie, such is Washington. However, this is not the only way that campaign politics is intersecting with Washington politics. The dysfunction in Washington, despite or in addition to how it's fueled by GOP candidates' pandering, is spawning some unique challenges in the 2012 election cycle.
